Abstract
Given the vast social and political complications based around the cultivation of Papaver Somniferum, or opium poppies, within Afghanistan, remote sensing and GIS can help illustrate a greater regional understanding of this phenomenon. Often, Afghan-households are coerced into the opium cultivation trade due to their dire financial situation, options of solid income from little arable land, and other financial pressures. This research creates an environment in which there is a greater understanding of this industry’s social milieu based on physical surroundings and social conditions. Based on using free public data, this research attempts to locate poppy fields, based on growth cycles visible from space, within the northern Ghor province. This task is challenging due to the limited 4 – 6 week flowering period per year when the Papaver Somniferum fields are visible from space. Through the use of Landsat and Google Earth Imagery, poppy locations are determined and then analyzed, using ENVI, based on their spectral signature, proximity to water resources, and other criteria. A GIS will also be used to determine the correlation between land-cover type and the potentially discovered Papaver Somniferum fields. Past and future opium cultivation locations are also located in the process of finding evidence of growing Papaver Somniferum.
Introduction
Opium production in Afghanistan has been a global problem for many years. The production of Papaver Somniferum within the Afghan-countryside accounts for 92% of all global opium supplies. In 2010, Macrosporium Papaverus, a plant disease/bacteria, crippled poppy production in Afghanistan leading to a 48% reduction in production. Such a reduction drastically affects 245,200 households currently involved with opium cultivation within Afghanistan. These households involved in the opium cultivation trade should not be blamed for the world’s drug problems due to their limited financial options and reasons for involvement within the industry. Such reasons for cultivation are as follows in decreasing order of prevalence: High sale price of opium; Poverty; To improve living condition; High income from little land; High demand for opium; It is a custom; Other; To cope with high domestic expenditures; Unemployment; Lack of support from Government/other sources; Possibility of getting loan; Land/climate conditions suitable.
This wide variety of reasons, primarily reliant upon financial need, indicates how the opium trade flourishes upon the instability of the country. Regardless of the reasons, however, this massive scale of opium production within Afghanistan is the root of many social and political problems. The severity of this problem has spurred my interest in the ability for researchers using free public data outside of the US central government intelligence organizations to locate and observe changes within cultivation patterns. (UNODC 28)
Methods
Opium is cultivated throughout much of the southwest portion of Afghanistan. With such a large possible study area, this research will primarily focus on the mountainous regions of northern Ghor province. The northern region of Ghor province is rural and dry enough to offer an isolated sample of spectral signatures potentially yielding high concentrations of poppy fields.
GCS Coordinates of Study Area:
34°27'55.05"N, 65°45'48.98"E – Northwest
34°27'56.66"N, 65°53'7.78"E – Northeast
34°24'39.87"N, 65°45'49.57"E – Southwest
34°24'50.54"N, 65°53'17.15"E – Southeast
By using free public remote sensing images from websites such as USGS Global Visualizer and USGS Earth Explorer, this research will attempt to locate poppies and observe characteristics around potential poppy cultivation areas.
In conjunction with free public image sources, background research will be conducted through the PBS Bitter Harvest website and the New York Times Book by Martin Booth’s Opium: A History on poppy growth cycles and conditions to properly understand the plant’s development. One initial key point from Fogleson is that poppies spectral signature “is shared by several other plants in the region, so the imagery analysts look for environmental conditions that favor poppy growth.” (Corbley 1) When determining with a degree of certainty which plants are actually Papaver Somniferum, this information is critical so as not to continually search for a unique signature. Examples of these necessary environmental conditions follow as, “Poppy plants, known by many for their bright-red blooms, require arable soil and adequate water supplies. With mechanical irrigation unavailable in remote parts of the country, the poppies usually are planted near rivers and streams. Soil preparation for poppy planting also is unique, yielding an early season plowing pattern that can often be spotted in imagery.” (Corbley 1)
These patterns outline a basic set of parameters allowing for a much more informed search to begin. Even with this valuable set of search parameters, the task will ultimately be complicated by the potential censorship of sensitive areas within Afghanistan among free public data.
Results
Unfortunately, the primary method of making visual confirmation of a poppy cultivation site involves the use of high resolution imagery in order to make out the colors of the flowers during their short flowering period. Free public high resolution data for Afghanistan is not highly accessible. After attempting to find IKONOS high resolution data on USGS Earth Explorer and USGS Global Visualizer I realized that Google Earth may have an image. Google Earth had one high resolution (roughly 1.65m resolution) image from June 13th, 2004.
After generating a growth cycle for the Papaver Somniferum table (left) based on readings, I found that primary growing season takes place between November 1st and February 28th due to increased morphine content within the plant due to the winter growing process. Post-February 28th, opium cultivators still attempt another, less potent, harvest through the summer season while waiting for the prime winter season to begin again. Coincidently the plant’s 2 – 3 week flowering period, taking place 90 days into the plant’s growing cycle, happens to fall between May 29th and June 18th. This places the high resolution Google Earth images within the perfect window to observe off-season cultivation's flowering period. Ultimately this phenomenon was observed under two instances with many other cultivation plots similar enough to be open to interpretation. GCS Coordinates of Poppy Locations:
- 34°26'34.56"N, 65°47'12.26"E – June 13th 2004
- 34°26'24.87"N, 65°49'06.69"E – June 13th 2004
With a visual confirmation of two cultivation locations that are highly likely to be Papaver Somniferum, additional analysis can now be conducted. Images for each of these cultivation plots were acquired and then “density sliced” within ENVI in order to potentially illustrate unique spectral signatures.
After running “density slice” on the locations, and fine tuning the ranges, I was able to confirm that there is a similarity in spectral signatures among all the plants within that cultivation region. 
Based on the Fogleson, there is a similarity among the Papaver Somniferum spectral signature and the spectral signatures among other regional plants, but there is also the potential that this location is concentrated with only poppy cultivation plots and therefore the “density slice” is detecting the unique signature appropriately.
Additionally, a NDVI was generated using the same poppy locations. This Normalized Difference Vegetation Index of 0.0 - 2.5 illustrated a strong connection between the greenness index and Afghan-river index. These rivers are the primary water source for much of these regions and therefore sustain the majority of greenness. This is exactly what makes the rivers such ideal locations for poppy cultivation. Using the NDVI image with the poppy locations, a clear connection could be made between the nearby banks of the river and where they were planted.
Additional greenness seems to bleed through other low-lying areas connecting to these rivers that also seem to receive some level of moisture. 
In combination with the NDVI, a GIS was created in order to demonstrate the correlation between land-cover types within the country and the known poppy locations. 
The light blue category of Rangeland (grassland/forbs/low shrubs) within the GIS shows the most common land-cover type used for planting Papaver Somniferum though a larger area of study would be informative.A final video fly-by over the study area was created in ENVI in order to best display the working conditions and environment of those working within this industry inside of these rural regions of Afghanistan. Much of this terrain where cultivation takes place average around 8500 – 9000 ft elevation with occasional 200 – 1000 ft elevation changes that become local peaks. This video helps to illustrate the secrecy and rugged terrain used to hide valuable crops.
Discussion
Within the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) publication of the Afghanistan Opium Survey 2010 there are GIS maps indicating levels of production within those provinces but there are no remote sensing images indicating field design, structure, road access, or cultivation zones. I believe that my research gives a more holistic idea of opium cultivation within these rural areas of Afghanistan through remote sensing.
One assumption of my research is dependent upon average planting periods. As noted earlier, “Coincidently the plant’s 2 – 3 week flowering period, taking place 90 days into the plant’s growing cycle, happens to fall between May 29th and June 18th”, this is strongly based on the fact that the peak harvesting periods are accurate (Nov 1st – Feb 28th) and that the off-season harvesting begins the day after the peak winter harvest.
There are many interesting aspects about this topic that can be explored further with greater funding. With the purchase of high resolution imagery, especially 0.3m resolution images, there is the possibility to conduct research involving cross regional shifts in opium production within Afghanistan, changes in production techniques, and how this production relates to terrorism and the larger drug trade.
Imagery
Displayed throughout my paper.
References
Booth, Martin. "Chapter One - Opium: A History." The New York Times on the Web: Books. 1996. The New York Times Company. 26 Nov 2010.
< http://www.nytimes.com/books/first/b/booth-opium.html >.
Corbley, Kevin. "Fields of Terror: Photo Mapping Aids Poppy Eradication in Afghanistan." GeoPlace.com. 1 Aug 2007. GeoPlace.com. 26 Nov 2010.
< http://www.geoplace.com/ME2/dirmod.asp?sid=&nm=&type=MultiPublishing&mod=PublishingTitles&mid=13B2F0D0AFA04476A2ACC02ED28A405F&tier=4&id=EA922002BAE04B8BB96CA0C2E7936692 >.
E. Quesada-Moraga. "Endophytic Colonisation of Opium Poppy, Papaver somniferum, by an Entomopathogenic Beauveria bassiana Strain." SpringerLink. 2006. SpringerLink. 26 Nov 2010. < http://www.springerlink.com/content/07728g063098nl24/ >.
PBS. "Wide Angle: Human Stories. Global Issues.." Bitter Harvest. 2007. Educational Broadcasting Corporation. 26 Nov 2010.
< http://www.pbs.org/wnet/wideangle/shows/centralasia/heroin1.html >.
Shroder, John. "Remote Sensing and GIS as Counterterrorism Tools for Homeland Security: The case of Afghanistan." SpringerLink. 2008. SpringerLink. 26 Nov 2010.
< http://www.springerlink.com/content/tn73j215372g5855/ >.
UNODC. "Afghanistan opium survey 2010 - Summary findings." United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime. 2010. UNODC. 26 Nov 2010.
< https://www.unodc.org/unodc/publications-by-date.html >.
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